Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML has warned of a significant drop in sales to China in 2026, citing both recent high purchase volumes and tightening export controls. The company, headquartered in Veldhoven, noted that Chinese customers have already made substantial acquisitions in recent years, and future demand is expected to decline sharply.
Geopolitical tensions continue to play a major role in ASML’s outlook. The United States, under former President Joe Biden, had urged the Dutch government to impose strict export restrictions on ASML’s advanced chipmaking machines to prevent sensitive technology from reaching China. The newly elected President Donald Trump has signaled no intention to reverse that policy.
“We expect demand from China and therefore our total sales to China—to decline significantly in 2026 compared to our strong business in 2024 and 2025,” ASML stated in its third-quarter earnings report. In 2024, China accounted for 40% of ASML’s total sales, making it the company’s largest market.
While ASML did not quantify the expected decline, it reassured investors that total net sales in 2026 will not fall below 2025 levels. This announcement aligns with earlier concerns voiced by ASML in July, when the company expressed doubts about revenue growth in 2026. That warning triggered a sharp 10% drop in ASML’s stock price, although the losses have since been recovered.
For the current year, ASML still expects revenue growth of approximately 15% compared to 2024. However, third-quarter results fell short of that pace, with revenue reaching €7.51 billion only slightly above the €7.47 billion reported in the same period last year.