Category: Market Update

The price of gold has soared to an all-time high as concerns over an escalating trade war intensify. President Donald Trump’s recent decision to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports has fueled uncertainty, driving investors toward the safe-haven asset. Gold reached €2800 per ounce on Friday, marking a 0.9% increase and its fourth consecutive weekly gain. This year alone, the precious metal has risen by approximately 17%, achieving multiple record highs. The rally has been supported by central bank purchases, growing geopolitical tensions, and heightened macroeconomic uncertainties.

Investors are preparing for potential economic repercussions as additional U.S. tariffs are expected on April 2. Despite positive U.S. economic growth data for the fourth quarter, concerns about inflation and trade policies have overshadowed market optimism. Major financial institutions have raised their year-end gold price forecasts, with some analysts pointing to strong demand from central banks and increased inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Meanwhile, silver has also experienced robust demand, with prices nearing their highest levels since 2012.

In January, U.S. imports experienced a significant increase of 12.1% compared to the previous month. Experts suggest that American companies are stockpiling goods to prepare for the tariff hikes proposed by President Donald Trump on imported products.

Globally, trade expanded by 1.1% in January compared to December, according to the World Trade Monitor published by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). This report, released monthly, tracks the evolution of international trade. December had already seen a global trade increase of 0.8%. The CPB also highlighted a worldwide import growth of 2.1% in January, alongside a modest export growth of 0.1%. Meanwhile, global industrial production showed a slight decline of 0.1%, a contrast to the 0.8% increase observed in December. A notable factor in this contraction is reduced output in the Japanese manufacturing sector.

On an annual basis, U.S. imports surged even more dramatically, showing a 24% increase compared to January of the previous year. The CPB had previously indicated that the tariff measures would have a limited overall impact on global trade volumes. Instead, they predict a shift in trade flows, with decreased exports to the U.S. being offset by increased exports to regions like the European Union. The policy of raising tariffs aims to protect American industries from foreign competitors and encourage consumers to buy domestically produced goods by making imports more expensive. However, experts question the effectiveness of this approach, citing limited domestic alternatives for some foreign goods and the risk of retaliatory tariffs from other nations.

Copper prices are witnessing a significant rally, with futures approaching record highs. Market developments, including U.S. tariff policies and global economic shifts, have driven heightened demand for the versatile industrial metal. On the London Metal Exchange, copper recently surpassed the $10,000 per metric ton milestone, while New York’s Comex contracts remain near peak levels. Recent hints from the U.S. administration regarding scaled-back tariffs have eased concerns of an economic slowdown, further fueling copper’s climb.

Year-to-date, copper prices in the U.S. have risen over 24%, with a 14% increase observed in London. The anticipation of potential tariffs on metal imports has created regional price discrepancies, encouraging a surge in shipments to the United States.

Estimates suggest between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of copper are expected to arrive in the U.S. in the near term, as buyers act to secure supply ahead of any trade restrictions. This front-running behavior has parallels with recent trends in gold markets. Domestically, supply challenges have also garnered attention. U.S. policymakers have identified vulnerabilities in the copper supply chain, emphasizing the nation’s reliance on foreign sources for refined and processed copper. This has prompted a review of copper imports and their implications for national security.

Beyond the U.S., China, the world’s largest copper importer, has announced economic stimulus measures expected to boost demand. Indicators such as improved retail sales and industrial output reflect the effectiveness of these pro-growth policies, adding further upward pressure on copper prices.

Cryptocurrency is no longer solely the domain of private investors and individuals. Over the years, several governments have amassed substantial reserves of cryptocurrencies, signaling a shift in the global financial landscape. These holdings not only reflect a strategic approach to digital assets but also demonstrate the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in national economies.

For governments, cryptocurrency reserves offer multiple advantages. They provide a hedge against traditional financial system risks, serve as assets for economic stabilization, and can even support technological advancements in blockchain. The reserves held by nations like the United States and China indicate the critical role enforcement and regulation play in accumulating digital assets.

Moreover, these holdings have wider implications for global financial systems. Governments that actively integrate cryptocurrencies into their fiscal strategies could shape future markets, particularly as the adoption of blockchain technology grows.

Despite the advantages, public crypto holdings present challenges, including price volatility, regulatory uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions over digital finance. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, governments may face increasing scrutiny over how these reserves are managed and utilized. Looking forward, the integration of cryptocurrencies into public financial frameworks may redefine national strategies, positioning digital assets as a pivotal element of future economies. Whether for enforcement, economic support, or strategic reserves, cryptocurrency is proving to be more than just a speculative asset—it’s becoming a state level tool for economic and technological positioning.

1. United States: With the largest government-held reserve, the U.S. controls approximately 207,189 BTC (valued at over $17 billion). These assets are primarily the result of law enforcement seizures linked to cybercrimes and illicit activities.
2. China: Following closely, China holds around 194,000 BTC, worth approximately $16 billion. Most of these reserves originated from major criminal confiscations, including the infamous PlusToken Ponzi scheme.
3. United Kingdom: The UK has acquired a reserve of approximately 61,000 BTC, currently valued at $5.3 billion, largely from enforcement actions targeting financial crimes.
4. Ukraine: Ukraine’s reserve of 46,351 BTC plays a unique role, often supporting economic activities amidst ongoing challenges. These holdings underline the nation’s openness to embracing cryptocurrency as a tool for resilience.
5. Russia: With an estimated reserve of 8,485 BTC, Russia’s holdings reflect a more subdued but strategic approach to cryptocurrency reserves

The global silver market is facing significant strain as trade tensions and tariff policies continue to disrupt supply chains. Higher lease rates a measure of the cost to borrow the metal are indicative of tightening supplies, compounded by shifting trade dynamics between key markets such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In recent months, silver prices have climbed notably, supported by a growing demand for safe-haven investments amid market uncertainty. Spot silver has achieved impressive gains, outperforming in the commodities sector, while futures in New York have surged even higher.

The impact of trade tariffs has drawn large quantities of silver from London to U.S. storage facilities, causing inventory levels to dip in the U.K. and potentially leading to supply shortages. Unlike gold, which is often transported by air, silver’s relative bulk and weight mean it typically travels by sea, slowing the redistribution process and adding to market stress. Concerns about dwindling stockpiles in London have driven lease rates for silver to spike, with short-term borrowing costs surging to their highest levels in years. This reflects not only the physical challenges of transferring silver across markets but also the potential for a prolonged disruption if supplies in London fall critically low.

With a significant portion of U.S. silver imports sourced from Canada and Mexico, reciprocal tariffs imposed in response to trade measures have introduced additional uncertainties. The possibility of further tariff hikes has left market participants wary of long-term risks, including the potential for sustained pricing dislocations.

A major aluminium producer has proposed a 14% hike in premiums for primary aluminium shipments to Japan for the April-June quarter. The suggested premium now stands at $260 per metric ton, compared to $228 in the previous quarter, sources familiar with the negotiations reported. This increase reflects growing uncertainties around supply dynamics in the global aluminium market.

Japan plays a crucial role as one of Asia’s leading importers of aluminium, with its quarterly agreed premiums serving as a benchmark for the broader region. The January-March premium of $228 had already marked the highest rate in nearly a decade, increasing by 30% from the preceding quarter.

The producer’s decision to propose a higher premium stems from concerns over supply redirection. Fresh U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminium imports could shift supply flows, diverting materials from traditional sources like the Middle East and Australia to North America, thereby tightening availability in the Asian market. The tariff measures, which impose a 25% duty on aluminium and steel imports into the United States, officially came into effect this week. An additional levy on global aluminium imports is expected to take effect in mid-March, adding further pressure to international supply chains.

However, the proposed premium has drawn skepticism from buyers in Japan. Spot premiums in the country remain subdued, hovering around $180 per ton due to weaker demand and efforts to reduce inventories before the fiscal year-end in March. This disconnect may prolong ongoing negotiations, as buyers and sellers work to reconcile their differing expectations. Historically, Japan’s influence in aluminium price-setting has waned, as domestic demand for primary aluminium has nearly halved over the past two decades. Global producers now prioritize larger-volume buyers, reducing Japan’s leverage in negotiations.

The value of the U.S. dollar has sharply declined over the past few days, hitting its lowest point in nearly four months against the euro. The dollar has also weakened against other major currencies. By Wednesday, the exchange rate had climbed from 1.038 dollars per euro to over 1.07 dollars per euro, marking a 3% decrease in the dollar’s value in just a few days.

Economic instability in the United States appears to be a contributing factor. Early indicators suggest that the economy is not performing well under President Donald Trump’s new administration. The introduction and anticipation of new import tariffs have caused unrest, and the government’s efforts to downsize the federal workforce have further fueled uncertainty.

Conversely, the euro has strengthened in recent days, largely due to developments in Germany. According to an analyst from Reuters, the German government plans to increase spending on infrastructure and may remove its debt ceiling. This would allow for additional government spending, providing a boost to the euro. As the largest economy in the eurozone, Germany’s economic policies have a significant impact on the euro’s value.

Nvidia’s stock took a hit, falling 2.8% on Tuesday after reports surfaced about the Trump administration’s plans to tighten US export rules for the chip sector, aimed at limiting China’s progress in AI technology. The proposed measures include sanctions on specific Chinese companies and further restrictions on international firms maintaining semiconductor equipment in China.

This news follows the recent introduction of cost-efficient AI models by Chinese firm DeepSeek, which have impacted US markets. Over the past five trading days, Nvidia’s stock has declined by over 9%, ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report set for Wednesday. Nvidia’s stock also dropped 4% on Friday and another 3% on Monday, as uncertainties surrounding Trump’s trade policies fueled inflation fears and negatively affected major stock indexes.

Adding to Nvidia’s challenges, Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis indicated that the ramp-up of Nvidia’s latest Blackwell AI chips could be delayed until mid-2025. Despite this, demand for Nvidia’s GPUs remains strong, with customers expected to purchase the existing H100 chips in the interim.

The Blackwell chips have encountered overheating issues and glitches, prompting major customers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta to reduce their orders. Despite these setbacks, We maintain a positive outlook on Nvidia’s stock.

The European Commission is set to unveil new proposals aimed at reducing the regulatory burden on companies regarding sustainability reporting. The proposed changes are part of the EU’s broader strategy to cut red tape for businesses, enhance competitiveness, and respond to external pressures.

Under the current Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), companies with more than 250 employees and a turnover exceeding 40 million euros are required to disclose their environmental and social sustainability information. However, the draft proposal, seen by Reuters, indicates that the threshold will be raised to companies with over 1,000 employees and a net turnover exceeding 450 million euros.

Additionally, the EU plans to cancel its sector-specific reporting standards, previously scheduled for adoption by next June, and delay the implementation of the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). The CSDDD requires companies to identify and address human rights and environmental issues within their supply chains. The new proposal suggests that companies will only need to conduct in-depth assessments of their direct business partners and subsidiaries, excluding other subcontractors and suppliers.

These proposed changes have sparked a debate among EU member countries. While Germany and France advocate for loosening the green reporting rules to boost industrial competitiveness, Spain and others argue that these regulations are vital for upholding the EU’s core values on environmental protection and human rights.

The upcoming proposals will be officially published next week, and the final details may still change. However, the draft provides a clear indication of the EU’s intent to simplify and streamline its sustainability reporting requirements for businesses.

For the first time since 2019, the European smartphone market has experienced growth, according to analysis by Canalys. In 2024, there was a 5% increase in smartphone deliveries compared to the previous year. This growth, though modest, marks a significant turnaround after years of declining sales.

Approximately 136.1 million smartphones were sold in Europe in 2024, excluding Russia. This increase can be attributed partly to a rise in high-end smartphone sales, as well as consumers replacing older devices purchased during the COVID-19 pandemic. For manufacturers, this trend signals a rebound in revenue, especially in the premium segment where profit margins are higher.

Samsung remains the market leader with a 34% market share and has slightly extended its lead in Europe. Apple, the second-largest player, was unable to match the market growth and saw its share drop to 26%. Xiaomi also lost a percentage point, now holding 16% of the market. Meanwhile, Motorola gained a percentage point to reach 6%, and OPPO’s market share remained stable at 3%.

Challenges and Legislation in 2025

The year 2025 presents new challenges for smartphone vendors in Europe. From June 20th, new EU regulations will require smartphones to receive five years of support and security updates. According to Canalys, these rules will significantly impact manufacturers focused on the mass market, as profit margins for these devices are already low and additional support will incur extra costs.