OPEC+ reached an agreement on Sunday to increase oil production in October, continuing a trend of output hikes seen in May, June, and July. While the latest boost is more modest than previous ones such as the 500,000 barrels per day added in August it signals the group’s ongoing commitment to expanding supply.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the cumulative effect of these increases is expected to result in a significant oil surplus. Although global demand is forecast to rise slightly, it won’t keep pace with the surge in supply. The IEA projects that by 2026, daily oil production will exceed demand by 3.31 million barrels 360,000 barrels more than its previous estimate. If realized, this would mark a record surplus.
The imbalance is not solely driven by OPEC+. Countries outside the alliance including the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana are also ramping up production. This year alone, non OPEC+ producers are expected to add 1.4 million barrels per day, nearly double the anticipated increase in global demand. The IEA forecasts another one million barrels per day in additional output from these nations in 2026.
The agency warns that the first half of 2026 could see a global surplus of around four million barrels per day. Analysts suggest that this excess supply may lead to downward pressure on oil prices, which could eventually be reflected at fuel pumps though local taxes and station pricing policies will also play a role.
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, appears to be responding to political pressure as well. Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased output in part to support U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to lower fuel prices a key promise in his reelection campaign. Trump has repeatedly called for higher production from OPEC+ to ease consumer costs.